Price & trend signal · Bitcoin cycle

Rainbow band

Where price sits inside a long-run logarithmic-regression band — the “rainbow” valuation view.

Lower band

Bottom territory

Deep-value territory; bottom-leaning.

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What is the Rainbow band?

The Rainbow band fits a logarithmic regression to Bitcoin’s long price history and draws colour bands above and below it. Where today’s price sits inside those bands gives a rough, big-picture valuation read.

Lower (cool) bands have historically been accumulation/bottom territory; upper (hot) bands have appeared near euphoric tops. It is a slow, illustrative model — context, not a precise signal.

Built from our own median exchange price index over the full available history — no external model or paid feed.

Rainbow band chart & history

Recent cycle position (0–100) of the Rainbow band. Today's reading is Lower band — Deep-value territory; bottom-leaning.

How to read it

There's no magic threshold, but history gives rough bands. Think of these as context, not triggers.

Zone	Reading	What it has meant historically
Lower bands● now	cool colours	Deep-value territory; bottom-leaning.
Mid band	centre	Fair-value range; neutral.
Upper bands	hot colours	Overvalued territory; top-leaning.

It's a signal about months and cycles, not days. That's why CryptoMarketCycle blends it with the other signals rather than reading it alone.

Common questions

It is a logarithmic-regression band model that colours long-run price zones from cool (undervalued) to hot (overvalued). It is illustrative, not a prediction.

It is a rough, big-picture guide fitted to past data. We treat it as one slow signal among many, never as a forecast.

Related signals

The Rainbow band is 1 of 16 signals behind the Crypto Market Cycle Index.

See the full index →