Price & trend signal · Bitcoin cycle

Price vs 200-day average

How far Bitcoin sits above or below its 200-day average — the market’s long-trend anchor.

−16.0%

Bottom territory

Stretched under trend; bottom-leaning.

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What is the Price vs 200-day average?

This signal measures the percentage gap between Bitcoin’s price and its 200-day moving average, one of the most widely watched long-term trend lines.

Large negative gaps mean price is stretched well below trend — a condition that has historically clustered near cycle lows. Large positive gaps mean price runs hot above trend, which has tended to appear nearer tops.

It is computed from our own median exchange price index, so we publish our own value rather than republishing anyone else’s.

Price vs 200-day average chart & history

Recent cycle position (0–100) of the Price vs 200-day average. Today's reading is −16.0% — Stretched under trend; bottom-leaning.

How to read it

There's no magic threshold, but history gives rough bands. Think of these as context, not triggers.

Zone	Reading	What it has meant historically
Far below● now	below −25%	Stretched under trend; bottom-leaning.
Around trend	−25% to +50%	Normal range; little timing signal.
Far above	above +50%	Overextended; has bracketed tops.

It's a signal about months and cycles, not days. That's why CryptoMarketCycle blends it with the other signals rather than reading it alone.

Common questions

It shows how far Bitcoin is trading above or below its 200-day moving average, in percent — a quick read on the long-term trend.

Deep discounts to the 200-day average have historically appeared near cycle bottoms, but it is context, not a trigger.

Related signals

The Price vs 200-day average is 1 of 16 signals behind the Crypto Market Cycle Index.

See the full index →