CryptoMarketCycle

The last full crypto cycle, in one line

The same 0–100 index, computed back through the last bull and bear market from free public data. See where the past bottom and top formed — and how today compares. (History deepens as we extend our free price archive.)

The index across every cycle
extreme fear · past bottomsextreme greed · past tops
02550751002020202120222023202420252026now 23

Shaded red below 25 (extreme fear — where past bottoms formed) and green above 75 (extreme greed — where past tops formed). Colour shows sentiment, not outcome. Values before launch are back-computed with the same formula.

What happened after past extremes

The index runs 0–100, and the colours match the rest of the site. Red = fear (the market is scared — historically nearer a bottom). Green = greed (the market is euphoric — historically nearer a top). Below, each card shows what tended to happen afterward. Today's 23 is deep in the red fear zone — the same zone as the past bottoms here.

Red — fear (low index)The crowd is scared. In past cycles these moments sat near market bottoms.
Green — greed (high index)The crowd is euphoric. In past cycles these moments sat near market tops.
Fear · index hit 8
December 2018
After a year-long decline, fear hit an extreme — the index fell to 8 / 100.
What followed↑Bitcoin rose ~3× over the next 12 months.
Not a promise — just what happened that time.
Greed · index hit 92
November 2021
Euphoria peaked at the all-time high — the index pinned at 92 / 100.
What followed↓Bitcoin fell ~75% over the next 12 months.
Not a warning — just what happened that time.
Fear · index hit 11
November 2022
After the FTX collapse, fear hit a multi-year low — the index fell to 11 / 100.
What followed↑Bitcoin roughly tripled over the following year.
Not a promise — just what happened that time.

Events that moved the market

Major moments behind the biggest swings, each with a verifiable source. Events explain the line — they don't change how the index is calculated.

Apr 2024
Fourth Bitcoin halving cuts new supply in half.
Jan 2024
First US spot Bitcoin ETFs approved and begin trading.
Nov 2022
FTX collapses into bankruptcy; sentiment hits a multi-year low.
May 2022
Terra/Luna and UST implode, wiping out tens of billions.
Nov 2021
Bitcoin sets its all-time high near $69k; euphoria peaks.
Apr 2021
Coinbase lists on Nasdaq; Bitcoin prints a local cycle high.
Mar 2020
COVID crash — "Black Thursday" wipes ~50% off Bitcoin in a day.

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