Price & trend signal · Bitcoin cycle
200-week MA heatmap
Price against the 200-week moving average — the line that has caught every cycle floor.
1.04×
Bottom territory
On the long-cycle floor; bottom-leaning.
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What is the 200-week MA heatmap?
The 200-week MA heatmap tracks Bitcoin’s price relative to its 200-week (roughly four-year) moving average — a line price has rarely closed below.
When price sits on or near this average, it has historically been in cycle-floor territory. Big multiples of the average have appeared near tops. The “heatmap” colours each week by how fast the average is rising.
Because it spans ~4 years, it is a slow signal about the whole cycle, not day-to-day moves. Our deep exchange history (Bitstamp back to ~2011) makes this computable for free.
200-week MA heatmap chart & history
Recent cycle position (0–100) of the 200-week MA heatmap. Today's reading is 1.04× — On the long-cycle floor; bottom-leaning.
How to read it
There's no magic threshold, but history gives rough bands. Think of these as context, not triggers.
| Zone | Reading | What it has meant historically |
|---|---|---|
| At the floor● now | ~1.0× – 1.2× | On the long-cycle floor; bottom-leaning. |
| Mid | ~1.2× – 3× | Normal range. |
| Stretched | above ~3× | Far above the average; top-leaning. |
It's a signal about months and cycles, not days. That's why CryptoMarketCycle blends it with the other signals rather than reading it alone.
Common questions
It plots Bitcoin’s price against its 200-week moving average and colours each week by the average’s rate of rise. Price near the average has marked cycle floors.
Only briefly, near the deepest bear-market lows — which is why the level is watched as a cycle floor.
Related signals
The 200-week MA heatmap is 1 of 16 signals behind the Crypto Market Cycle Index.
See the full index →